The Australian will line up 18th in his RB after his best time was deleted in Qualifying 1 for track limits.
That lap would have seen him easily progress to Qualifying 2, but instead, he faces an uphill task from, effectively, the back row of the grid.
“I don’t know,” he confessed when asked what he might be capable of from 18th.
“I don’t even know if I’ve figured out, I don’t think it’s sunk in where I start. It’s certainly painful.
“The only thing I can be optimistic about is the home crowd is great.”
Yuki Tsunoda in the other RB qualified eighth, suggesting there’s inherent pace in the car.
However, the Albert Park circuit is famous for being difficult to pass on, leaving Ricciardo hoping tyre wear becomes a factor in the race, allowing him to benefit through strategy.
“I think it’s probably a two-stop race with tyre wear and that, so opens up a bit more opportunity,” he reasoned.
“Maybe if I can be a bit nicer on the tyres [it] could provide something, and hopefully some guys struggle with graining and a few things like that.
“Hopefully, we can charge through the field but yeah. I’m still a bit… still kind of occupied on where the lap time is currently in this car.”
The Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix begins at 15:00 AEDT.